Introducing...
The new web home of all things Technical Sports Analysis.
Bull VS Bear
Yeah, I know I've done this before, but it just isn't appropriate to be posting baseball stuff at a site called The Football Professor. Bull VS Bear will be the main repository for technical analysis of all sports, including football beginning with the 2008 NFL and NCAA seasons. TFP will still be around but the bulk of content will be at BVSB.
Why Bull VS Bear? Because its technical analysis we're dealing with here, and everybody knows what Bull and Bear mean in the stock market. When a team is on a hot streak we're calling them a Bull and when a team is falling apart we'll call them a Bear. Works the same way in the stock market.
Friday, April 04, 2008
Tuesday, March 18, 2008
New England Patriots Historic Season In NFL Football 2007-2008
New England Patriots are a professional men’s football team that plays in the National Football League (NFL) of the United States of America. Based in the Greater Boston area, the team is a member of the Eastern Division of the American Football Conference. They were originally known as Boston Patriots, which was founded in the year 1960. It was only after the team was relocated to Foxborough in 1971 that they started playing with its current name - New England Patriots. However, sports writers and fans usually call this team with its nickname – "Pats".
Consecutive Wins In Super Bowls
In the recent years, the team is at its peak performance. From 2001 to 2005, New England Patriots has won three Super Bowls in four years - Super Bowl 36,38, and 39. In the entire NFL history, Pats has become the only second team to do so. They have also become the eighth team to win consecutive Super Bowls.
Current American Football Conference Champion
The team has won the 2007 AFC Championship Game and is the current American Football Conference Champion. The 2007-2008 season has been the best season for the team, as since the introduction of the 16-game season, Pats has become the first team to complete a perfect regular season with a record of 16-0. However, overall, they are the second team in the modern era of the NFL to do so.
Establishment As An NFL Dynasty
It is because of such great achievements why the New England Patriots of the 21st century are now considered as an NFL dynasty on a par with the Cowboys of the '90s, the 49ers of the '80s, the Steelers of the '70s, and the Packers of the 1960s.
The 2007-2008 Season
The 2007-2008 is the overall 48th season for New England Patriots. However, in the National Football League, it is the team’s 38th season. It is only the fourth time in the NFL’s history (after the introduction of 16-game schedule in 1978) that a team clinched the division title by its eleventh game. The team won their sixth American Football Conference chamionship only in week twelve before their eleventh game. After that, the team made another landmark by completing the regular season with the first 16-0 record in NFL history. Miami Dolphins was the only NFL team that finished the 1972 season with an undefeated 14-0 record. New England Patriots has now become the first team to have an undefeated regular season after Dolphins did it in 1972.
Another Landmark
The Patriots made several landmarks during their 2007-2008 season. As per another statistics shown by the Elias Sports Bureau, the two playoff wins of the Pats to reach Super Bowl XLII has made them the only professional team in any of the four major American sports (including hockey, baseball, basketball, and football) that remain undefeated in the first eighteen games of a season.
The Patriots were all set to leave the 2007 - 2008 with an NFL-record 19-game regular season winning streak. They played the New York Giants and lost the Super Bowl game in one of the biggest upsets in Giants and NFL history. Super Bowl 42 will go down as one of the best ever played and be talked about throughout the history of the game as the Patriots settle for an 18-1 record and the one loss to the Giants is a win the Giants will remember for a long time.
Al is the author and webmaster of a Football Tickets Site
Consecutive Wins In Super Bowls
In the recent years, the team is at its peak performance. From 2001 to 2005, New England Patriots has won three Super Bowls in four years - Super Bowl 36,38, and 39. In the entire NFL history, Pats has become the only second team to do so. They have also become the eighth team to win consecutive Super Bowls.
Current American Football Conference Champion
The team has won the 2007 AFC Championship Game and is the current American Football Conference Champion. The 2007-2008 season has been the best season for the team, as since the introduction of the 16-game season, Pats has become the first team to complete a perfect regular season with a record of 16-0. However, overall, they are the second team in the modern era of the NFL to do so.
Establishment As An NFL Dynasty
It is because of such great achievements why the New England Patriots of the 21st century are now considered as an NFL dynasty on a par with the Cowboys of the '90s, the 49ers of the '80s, the Steelers of the '70s, and the Packers of the 1960s.
The 2007-2008 Season
The 2007-2008 is the overall 48th season for New England Patriots. However, in the National Football League, it is the team’s 38th season. It is only the fourth time in the NFL’s history (after the introduction of 16-game schedule in 1978) that a team clinched the division title by its eleventh game. The team won their sixth American Football Conference chamionship only in week twelve before their eleventh game. After that, the team made another landmark by completing the regular season with the first 16-0 record in NFL history. Miami Dolphins was the only NFL team that finished the 1972 season with an undefeated 14-0 record. New England Patriots has now become the first team to have an undefeated regular season after Dolphins did it in 1972.
Another Landmark
The Patriots made several landmarks during their 2007-2008 season. As per another statistics shown by the Elias Sports Bureau, the two playoff wins of the Pats to reach Super Bowl XLII has made them the only professional team in any of the four major American sports (including hockey, baseball, basketball, and football) that remain undefeated in the first eighteen games of a season.
The Patriots were all set to leave the 2007 - 2008 with an NFL-record 19-game regular season winning streak. They played the New York Giants and lost the Super Bowl game in one of the biggest upsets in Giants and NFL history. Super Bowl 42 will go down as one of the best ever played and be talked about throughout the history of the game as the Patriots settle for an 18-1 record and the one loss to the Giants is a win the Giants will remember for a long time.
Al is the author and webmaster of a Football Tickets Site
Wednesday, March 12, 2008
17-12-5
In a completely unscientific poll taken by readers of The Football Professor, 50% of the voting readers believe that the New England Patriots THREW the Super Bowl against New York.
17 of the voters marked that they thought New England threw the game. 12 of the readers marked that they believed New England did not throw the game. 5 of the readers were upset by the question, marking "How Dare You".
34 votes isn't many, but if we can take anything at all from a poll with a sample size this small it's that there is a pretty significant percent of the population that thinks something was up when the Patriots just happened to play their absolute worst game of the season in the championship.
17 of the voters marked that they thought New England threw the game. 12 of the readers marked that they believed New England did not throw the game. 5 of the readers were upset by the question, marking "How Dare You".
34 votes isn't many, but if we can take anything at all from a poll with a sample size this small it's that there is a pretty significant percent of the population that thinks something was up when the Patriots just happened to play their absolute worst game of the season in the championship.
Wednesday, March 05, 2008
2008 PREDICTIONS Soon Available
Ah, the beauty of technical analysis. My predictions for 2008 are actually done and we haven't even been forced through two horrible days of the NFL draft yet.
In order to be competitive I figured I'd need to give my publication a name. All of the good serious ones were taken so in a moment of ingenuity I decided to call it...wait for it...
Is that retarded? Is it even politically correct to refer to things as retarded anymore? Seriously though, I think the name might stick.
Questions can be directed to footballprofessor@gmail.com. Please use the button below to place your order...the PREDICTOPOTAMUS is available in .PDF, .DOC, or paper which I'll have to ship to you.
In order to be competitive I figured I'd need to give my publication a name. All of the good serious ones were taken so in a moment of ingenuity I decided to call it...wait for it...
Is that retarded? Is it even politically correct to refer to things as retarded anymore? Seriously though, I think the name might stick.
Questions can be directed to footballprofessor@gmail.com. Please use the button below to place your order...the PREDICTOPOTAMUS is available in .PDF, .DOC, or paper which I'll have to ship to you.
Saturday, March 01, 2008
Seeking New Authors
TFP is entering its third full season of analysis in 2008 and to mark this achievement we're looking for some new authors to help contribute. I'm not looking for anything too serious - this won't be a paying gig until the site actually makes some money - but if you're willing to volunteer a column a week (or more) send me an email (footballprofessor@gmail.com) with the following included:
Your name
Two writing samples
Three reasons why you want to write for TFP
Candidates will be notified via email if they have been accepted.
Knowledge of technical analysis is a plus, especially if you have a new angle for research.
Writing for TFP can be a lot of fun and we want to make 2008 our best season ever. If you are chosen to become one of our new writers you will also have the opportunity to work on other TFP projects including the publication of our NFL Predictopotamus and Weekly Newsletters. Your work will be put in front of thousands of football fans every month.
Your name
Two writing samples
Three reasons why you want to write for TFP
Candidates will be notified via email if they have been accepted.
Knowledge of technical analysis is a plus, especially if you have a new angle for research.
Writing for TFP can be a lot of fun and we want to make 2008 our best season ever. If you are chosen to become one of our new writers you will also have the opportunity to work on other TFP projects including the publication of our NFL Predictopotamus and Weekly Newsletters. Your work will be put in front of thousands of football fans every month.
Wednesday, February 13, 2008
Indicators: Part I
Over the three years that I've been analyzing football, I've found some indicators of future team performance that I mention from time to time in my game previews. I'll say stuff like "they were on a bullish trend", or "they were becoming inconsistent", and stuff like that. Most of the time the charts are hard to read or I don't illustrate what I'm trying to say.
Now, I've collected charts from 2005-2007 and put some illustrations on them so that hopefully you can see what I'm looking at.
The first indicator I want to show you is the "triangle". Maybe some day I'll come up with a better name than that. The "triangle" occurs one of two ways:
Remember, I track not just one stat but three on these charts. I track each team's biggest lead, biggest deficit, and closing margin of victory or loss in each game. Those three stats are incorporated into one line, or "candlestick", where the uppermost end is the biggest lead and the lowermost end is the biggest deficit. The dot somewhere between the two ends is the final margin of victory or loss.
Without further delay, here are some fine examples of the "triangle" in action.
Washington was inconsistent in weeks 9-13, then declined in weeks 15-19.
The Chargers inconsistency was in weeks 4-9, then their decline in weeks 11-17.
2005 Dallas Cowboys
Dallas was inconsistent from weeks 3-11, then declined in weeks 12-15.
2006 New York Jets
The Jets were inconsistent in weeks 10-14, then declined in weeks 15-18.
2006 Miami Dolphins
The Dolphins were inconsistent in weeks 10-15, then declined in weeks 16-17.
2006 Dallas Cowboys
Dallas was inconsistent in weeks 4-11, then declined in weeks 12-17.
2007 Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Tampa Bay was inconsistent in weeks 2-8, then declined in weeks 11-18.
2007 Seattle Seahawks
The Seahawks were inconsistent from weeks 1-7, then declined in weeks 9-13.
2007 San Diego Chargers
The Chargers were inconsistent in weeks 8-14, then declined in weeks 15-20.
2007 Jacksonville Jaguars
The Jaguars were inconsistent in weeks 10-17, then declined in weeks 18-19.
2007 Cleveland Browns
The Browns were inconsistent in weeks 2-6. Then they declined in weeks 8-10.
Now, I've collected charts from 2005-2007 and put some illustrations on them so that hopefully you can see what I'm looking at.
The first indicator I want to show you is the "triangle". Maybe some day I'll come up with a better name than that. The "triangle" occurs one of two ways:
- the team is moving from consistent to inconsistent
- the team is moving from inconsistent to consistent
Remember, I track not just one stat but three on these charts. I track each team's biggest lead, biggest deficit, and closing margin of victory or loss in each game. Those three stats are incorporated into one line, or "candlestick", where the uppermost end is the biggest lead and the lowermost end is the biggest deficit. The dot somewhere between the two ends is the final margin of victory or loss.
Without further delay, here are some fine examples of the "triangle" in action.
2005 Washington Redskins
Washington was inconsistent in weeks 9-13, then declined in weeks 15-19.2005 San Diego Chargers
The Chargers inconsistency was in weeks 4-9, then their decline in weeks 11-17.2005 Dallas Cowboys
Dallas was inconsistent from weeks 3-11, then declined in weeks 12-15.2006 New York Jets
The Jets were inconsistent in weeks 10-14, then declined in weeks 15-18.2006 Miami Dolphins
The Dolphins were inconsistent in weeks 10-15, then declined in weeks 16-17.2006 Dallas Cowboys
Dallas was inconsistent in weeks 4-11, then declined in weeks 12-17.2007 Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Tampa Bay was inconsistent in weeks 2-8, then declined in weeks 11-18.2007 Seattle Seahawks
The Seahawks were inconsistent from weeks 1-7, then declined in weeks 9-13.2007 San Diego Chargers
The Chargers were inconsistent in weeks 8-14, then declined in weeks 15-20.2007 Jacksonville Jaguars
The Jaguars were inconsistent in weeks 10-17, then declined in weeks 18-19.2007 Cleveland Browns
The Browns were inconsistent in weeks 2-6. Then they declined in weeks 8-10.End Of Season Thoughts
I'm going to wax philosophical for a second here, so look out.
Another football season has come and gone, and yet again there were teams that stumped us, games where team X should have beaten team Y but didn't, and a fair share of controversies sprinkled in. Altogether it was a good year, both in terms of game play and analysis.
I could write a whole column about my favorite plays this year, or how this team and that team outplayed all expectations, but that's what everyone else is doing and I don't like to be repetitive. This column is going to be a little different. I want to know why we do what we do.
By "we", I am referring to those of us who run football analysis web sites. Just off the top of my head I can think of a handful of sites that all claim to have an analysis method that consistently out-picks Vegas, or the ESPN Insiders, or their three year old cousins. That includes this site. We're got DVOA, WTM, ELO, Sagarin, Pythagorean, Distribution/Concentration of Power, Regression, Simulators, Game Charting, and a myriad of other objective and subjective analysis methods. AND WE ALL GET JUST ABOUT THE SAME RESULTS!
Aaron Schatz and his cronies at FO sweat through game tape with pencils, notebooks, and computers for hours a day, and I look at a couple charts made in Excel and we come up with practically the same answers!
What's the point?
For me, it started out as a hobby. I read work done by guys like Doug Drinen and the aforementioned Schatz and was fascinated by how well their stats correlated to winning. I remember when I first read about the Pythagorean analysis...I practically pooped myself. Points for and against correlate that well to wins? WOW!
Now, almost three years later, I've pushed and pushed to perfect my analysis. I've spent thousands of hours (it seems) trying to understand complicated mathematical formulas. What came of it all? I can predict NFL games pretty well. I think that's all that any of us can really say. We know what makes teams win. Woohoo. Let's pat ourselves on the back. Do any of us work for NFL teams? Will we ever make a difference to the sport? What do we find satisfying about this?
I'll be the first to admit that analyzing football is almost (if not completely) addictive. I can't get enough of keying stats into my computer. Seriously. I had a full-time job where I spent more than half of every day working on football stats instead of work-related stuff. I stared at charts until my eyes hurt. I'm sure my wife would like nothing more than to take my thumb drive and bake it into tonight's dinner. Every now and then I feel like it's all pointless and I vow to leave it all behind, but something keeps pulling me back in.
The Colts won on Sunday...I knew it would happen!
I wonder what percentage of games I've picked correctly this year.
The NFC won more inter-conference games than the AFC...how does that affect next year?
I wonder if I can hold off the other dudes in my Pick 'em League!
Should I write a book about this?
Here's the long and short of it all: all of us are getting basically the same results. Why in the world would I want to hop from blog to blog for four hours a day getting the same information from seventeen different blogs? I say New England should have won 13 games this year, some other site says 13.5, some other site says 12.7. My site was more accurate about Minnesota! Their site was more accurate about Washington!
I hate to say it, but not one of us is ever going to develop the perfect rating system. Look at David Tyree's grab against New England. Luck. Guts. Grit. Skill. Intestinal fortitude. They just can't be measured. You can't give Peyton Manning a 6.6 rating out of 10 on Lack of Mommy Issues. You can't give Eli Manning a 9.9 out of 10 on I Want To Be My Brother.
Blogging is a blessing and a curse. It's great because you get your voice and opinions out there. It sucks because for 99.9% of bloggers, there is no opportunity for advancement. Until we all put our heads together and unite, this is it. A lifetime of "my site is better than yours because I'm part of the Yardbarker network".
I can already tell you what's going to happen next year. I'll be right about some teams, wrong about others. I'll pick some winners and some losers. I'll write some posts about how good my system is and some posts about how lucky the other team got. So will you.
Anyone up for some baseball?
Another football season has come and gone, and yet again there were teams that stumped us, games where team X should have beaten team Y but didn't, and a fair share of controversies sprinkled in. Altogether it was a good year, both in terms of game play and analysis.
I could write a whole column about my favorite plays this year, or how this team and that team outplayed all expectations, but that's what everyone else is doing and I don't like to be repetitive. This column is going to be a little different. I want to know why we do what we do.
By "we", I am referring to those of us who run football analysis web sites. Just off the top of my head I can think of a handful of sites that all claim to have an analysis method that consistently out-picks Vegas, or the ESPN Insiders, or their three year old cousins. That includes this site. We're got DVOA, WTM, ELO, Sagarin, Pythagorean, Distribution/Concentration of Power, Regression, Simulators, Game Charting, and a myriad of other objective and subjective analysis methods. AND WE ALL GET JUST ABOUT THE SAME RESULTS!
Aaron Schatz and his cronies at FO sweat through game tape with pencils, notebooks, and computers for hours a day, and I look at a couple charts made in Excel and we come up with practically the same answers!
What's the point?
For me, it started out as a hobby. I read work done by guys like Doug Drinen and the aforementioned Schatz and was fascinated by how well their stats correlated to winning. I remember when I first read about the Pythagorean analysis...I practically pooped myself. Points for and against correlate that well to wins? WOW!
Now, almost three years later, I've pushed and pushed to perfect my analysis. I've spent thousands of hours (it seems) trying to understand complicated mathematical formulas. What came of it all? I can predict NFL games pretty well. I think that's all that any of us can really say. We know what makes teams win. Woohoo. Let's pat ourselves on the back. Do any of us work for NFL teams? Will we ever make a difference to the sport? What do we find satisfying about this?
I'll be the first to admit that analyzing football is almost (if not completely) addictive. I can't get enough of keying stats into my computer. Seriously. I had a full-time job where I spent more than half of every day working on football stats instead of work-related stuff. I stared at charts until my eyes hurt. I'm sure my wife would like nothing more than to take my thumb drive and bake it into tonight's dinner. Every now and then I feel like it's all pointless and I vow to leave it all behind, but something keeps pulling me back in.
The Colts won on Sunday...I knew it would happen!
I wonder what percentage of games I've picked correctly this year.
The NFC won more inter-conference games than the AFC...how does that affect next year?
I wonder if I can hold off the other dudes in my Pick 'em League!
Should I write a book about this?
Here's the long and short of it all: all of us are getting basically the same results. Why in the world would I want to hop from blog to blog for four hours a day getting the same information from seventeen different blogs? I say New England should have won 13 games this year, some other site says 13.5, some other site says 12.7. My site was more accurate about Minnesota! Their site was more accurate about Washington!
I hate to say it, but not one of us is ever going to develop the perfect rating system. Look at David Tyree's grab against New England. Luck. Guts. Grit. Skill. Intestinal fortitude. They just can't be measured. You can't give Peyton Manning a 6.6 rating out of 10 on Lack of Mommy Issues. You can't give Eli Manning a 9.9 out of 10 on I Want To Be My Brother.
Blogging is a blessing and a curse. It's great because you get your voice and opinions out there. It sucks because for 99.9% of bloggers, there is no opportunity for advancement. Until we all put our heads together and unite, this is it. A lifetime of "my site is better than yours because I'm part of the Yardbarker network".
I can already tell you what's going to happen next year. I'll be right about some teams, wrong about others. I'll pick some winners and some losers. I'll write some posts about how good my system is and some posts about how lucky the other team got. So will you.
Anyone up for some baseball?
Wednesday, February 06, 2008
Super Bowl XLIII Odds Already Out
These odds actually came out before the Giants' parade.
I'm also a little surprised at Tennessee, Cleveland and Washington. I thought the general consensus would be that all three of those teams would be faring well in 2008. I'm not going to tell you what WTM says just yet.
Philadelphia and Minnesota are also brutally low. I'll tell you right now that my gut likes both of those teams.
- New England Patriots 5:2
- Indianapolis Colts 6:1
- Dallas Cowboys 6:1
- Green Bay Packers 7:1
- San Diego Chargers 10:1
- Jacksonville Jaguars 10:1
- New York Giants 12:1
- Seattle Seahawks 18:1
- Pittsburgh Steelers 18:1
- New Orleans Saints 20:1
- Chicago Bears 25:1
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers 28:1
- Cleveland Browns 30:1
- Tennessee Titans 30:1
- Washington Redskins 30:1
- Cincinnati Bengals 38:1
- Denver Broncos 38:1
- Minnesota Vikings 38:1
- Philadelphia Eagles 45:1
- Arizona Cardinals 45:1
- Baltimore Ravens 50:1
- Buffalo Bills 60:1
- Carolina Panthers 60:1
- Detroit Lions 60:1
- Houston Texans 60:1
- New York Jets 75:1
- St. Louis Rams 75:1
- Miami Dolphins 100:1
- Oakland Raiders 100:1
- San Francisco 49ers 100:1
- Kansas City Chiefs 100:1
- Atlanta Falcons 100:1
I'm also a little surprised at Tennessee, Cleveland and Washington. I thought the general consensus would be that all three of those teams would be faring well in 2008. I'm not going to tell you what WTM says just yet.
Philadelphia and Minnesota are also brutally low. I'll tell you right now that my gut likes both of those teams.
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